Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has forecasted a dramatic shift in the global financial landscape, projecting up to $34 trillion in capital inflows into dollar-pegged stablecoins by 2028. This development, he argues, could significantly boost the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. In a recent blog post, Hayes emphasized the potential for stablecoins to serve as a conduit for onchain capital from eurodollar and Global South deposits, reshaping the structure of global finance [1].
The predictions highlight a potential 34-fold price increase for Ether.fi tokens, driven by demand for its debit card product. Additionally, Hayes anticipates a 51-fold and 126-fold uptick in the token prices of Ethena and Hyperliquid, respectively. These projections are contingent upon transformative regulatory and technological advancements, as well as widespread adoption of stablecoin-based systems. Such adoption, however, is not guaranteed and depends heavily on the response of global regulators and the technological infrastructure required to support such a significant shift [2].
Hayes’ analysis also hinges on the assumption that non-US banks may lose implicit access to US Treasury support, prompting depositors to seek alternatives in stablecoins. This shift could be further accelerated by the integration of stablecoin payments in the Global South, particularly in countries lacking robust capital control laws to prevent capital flight. As a vocal supporter of the DeFi space, Hayes not only anticipates these shifts but also backs some of the projects central to his predictions [1].
The stablecoin market, currently valued at $280 billion, has drawn considerable attention as one of the most dynamic sectors in the cryptocurrency industry. Even if Hayes’ projections for a $34 trillion influx appear ambitious, industry analysts suggest that the market is poised for continued growth. For instance, analysts at Keyrock and Bitso have projected that stablecoins could account for 12% of global cross-border payment volumes by 2030. This is a significant increase from the less than 3% of global remittances they represented in the previous year [2].
Coinbase, one of the leading crypto exchanges, has also forecasted that stablecoins could reach a market size of $1.2 trillion by 2028, marking a 330% increase over the next three years. In response to the anticipated market expansion, stablecoin issuers are now actively creating their own blockchains to capture a larger share of the transaction fees. This strategic move, according to market commentators like Ben Reynolds of BitGo, enables issuers to maintain greater control over settlement and compliance processes [2].
Hayes’ vision also extends to the broader implications for U.S. dollar dominance. He argues that stablecoins could become a crucial tool in reinforcing the dollar’s global standing by channeling foreign deposits into U.S. Treasury bills. This strategy, he suggests, could offer a new approach to maintaining financial influence amid rising de-dollarization efforts. The recent passage of the GENIUS Act has provided a regulatory framework that supports this vision, encouraging a wave of applications from banks and fintech firms eager to issue compliant stablecoins. This regulatory clarity has positioned stablecoins as a viable alternative to traditional settlement systems and could facilitate the integration of digital assets into mainstream finance [3].
Source:
[1] Arthur Hayes: How $34tn flowing into stablecoins will boost DeFi (https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/arthur-hayes-says-34t-influx-to-stablecoins-boost-defi/)
[2] Arthur Hayes: How $34tn flowing into stablecoins will boost … (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arthur-hayes-34tn-flowing-stablecoins-160043294.html)
[3] The US Dollar’s Next Weapon Isn’t Bonds, It’s Stablecoins (https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/arthur-hayes-us-dollars-weapon-bonds-stablecoins/)
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